Housing market set for ‘rollercoaster ride’ as prices surge

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Property expert reveals the latest buying trends for UK

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The housing market is set for a “rollercoaster ride” as figures show prices soared by 15.5 percent. According to the Office of National Statistics, average UK house prices increased by 15.5 percent over the year to July 2022, up from 7.8 percent in June 2022. 

The ONS figures mark the highest annual inflation rate the UK has seen since May 2003.

Average UK house prices also increased by £6,000 between June and July in 2022, compared with a fall of £13,000 between the same months last year.

The ONS said the sudden doubling of the annual rate of price growth “was mainly because of a base effect from the falls in prices seen this time last year as a result of changes in the stamp duty holiday”.

The annual increases in England and Wales were bigger at 16.4 percent and 17.6 percent respectively, with Scotland and Northern Ireland were below the UK average at 9.9 percent and 9.6 percent.

Speaking to Express.co.uk, Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders said: “Those of a nervous disposition may want to look away from the official house price data in the coming months – as we’re set for a rollercoaster ride.

“July’s doubling in the pace of price growth – accelerating to its fastest level in 19 years – is first and foremost a statistical anomaly. The annual rate of inflation has been pushed artificially high because July 2021 saw prices fall following the end of the Stamp Duty stampede. 

“Since then, the average home has seen its value surge by £39,000 – giving us today’s dizzying year on year figure. Needless to say, the coming months are unlikely to see figures anything like this. And yet prices are still rising steadily month on month. 

“The average price paid for a home rose by 1 percent between May and June, and by a further 2 percent between June and July. 

“This is solid stuff and represents the ninth consecutive monthly increase in values, albeit a fraction of the 5.7 percent spike seen in June 2021.”

Speaking to Express.co.uk, Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders said: “Those of a nervous disposition may want to look away from the official house price data in the coming months – as we’re set for a rollercoaster ride.

“July’s doubling in the pace of price growth – accelerating to its fastest level in 19 years – is first and foremost a statistical anomaly. The annual rate of inflation has been pushed artificially high because July 2021 saw prices fall following the end of the Stamp Duty stampede. 

“Since then, the average home has seen its value surge by £39,000 – giving us today’s dizzying year on year figure. Needless to say, the coming months are unlikely to see figures anything like this. And yet prices are still rising steadily month on month. 

“The average price paid for a home rose by 1 percent between May and June, and by a further 2 percent between June and July. 

“This is solid stuff and represents the ninth consecutive monthly increase in values, albeit a fraction of the 5.7 percent spike seen in June 2021.”

Mr Hopper added that two things “explain this continued buoyancy – data lag and lack of supply”. 

He said: “The hardening stance of buyers on the ground today, and the prices at which deals are now being done, won’t be fully reflected in the price indices for several months to come.

“The continued shortage of homes for sale is artificially cushioning what would be otherwise a more dramatic correction in the prices paid.

“The net result is almost akin to stagflation – prices are still rising even as sentiment weakens and transactions fall.

“From a frenzied market that was driven by sellers wanting ‘top prices’, the market has now transitioned to sellers wanting ‘top buyers’. Certainty and flexibility have become tradeable commodities during negotiations. 

“Buyers offering these advantages are increasingly able to secure price discounts in return – something rarely achieved just three months ago.”

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However, Chris Hodgkinson, Managing Director of HBB Solutions, also told Express.co.uk economic pressures will “dampen property market activity”.

He said: “The increasing cost of borrowing, coupled with the spiralling cost of running our homes, is already starting to dampen property market activity. 

“So while topline house prices remain robust, it’s only a matter of time before this dwindling market sentiment starts to show and we see a decline in the rate of house price growth. 

“Those currently considering a sale are best advised to do so quickly, as sitting tight until next year could see them achieve a lower price for their home compared to current market conditions.”

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