Earnings Previews: Clover Health, eBay, Skillz, TJX

Markets

Markets were closed Monday in observance of Presidents Day. Even so, a couple of intrepid energy companies chose to report results when no one was around to hear them.

Oil and gas producer APA (formerly Apache) reported adjusted earnings that missed expectations by 11.6% and revenue estimates by nearly 35%. The company also doubled its dividend to $0.125 per quarter and committed to a 60% capital return plan for investors. APA’s stock traded up 4.4% in Tuesday’s premarket. Pipeline operator Williams reported beats on both the top and bottom lines and guided 2022 dividends to $1.70 annually, up from $1.64 in 2021. Shares traded up by about 2% in the premarket session Tuesday.

Before markets opened Tuesday, these three companies also reported quarterly results: Home Depot, Macy’s and Medtronic.

On Wednesday, we shall hear from the following four companies, along with many others. One reports before markets open Wednesday and the rest report after the closing bell.

Clover Health

Medicare Advantage provider Clover Health Investments Corp. (NASDAQ: CLOV), which came public in January 2021 through a SPAC merger, has seen its stock plunge by almost 80% since then. That includes a spike to more than 10 times its current price. The latest blow is a threatened change to direct contracting by private companies of Medicare benefits. On top of that, Clover Health is practically the definition of a growth company, and those have not been doing well this year. The company’s shares have dropped nearly 45% so far in 2022. Clover Health reports after markets close Wednesday.

Just seven brokerages cover the shares, and only one has given the stock a Buy rating. Three rate the stock a Hold and the rest have a Strong Sell rating. At a recent price of around $2.05 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $3.50 is about 71%. At the high target of $9, the upside potential is 339%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $408.14 million, which would be down about 4.5% sequentially but up 145% year over year. Clover Health is expected to post a loss per share of $0.26, much larger than its loss of $0.08 in the prior quarter, but far better than the year-ago loss of $2.95 per year. For the full year, Clover Health is expected to post a loss per share of $1.19, much better than the year-ago loss of $3.18. Revenue is expected to rise by more than 115% year over year to $1.45 billion.

Clover Health is not expected to return a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The stock trades at an estimated sales to enterprise value multiple of 0.6 times for 2021, 0.3 times for 2022 and 0.2 times for 2023. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $2.08 to $28.85, and the low was posted last Friday. The company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 81%.

eBay

Online auction house eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) has posted a share price decline of about 11% over the past 12 months. In late October, the stock traded up nearly 30% for the period. What the company has to say about the future given consumer concerns about inflation and discretionary spending will be what investors are most interested in. eBay reports results after the closing bell Wednesday.

Of 30 brokerages covering the stock, 11 have given eBay a Buy or Strong Buy rating and 19 rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of about $55.50, the upside potential based on a median price target of $76.50 is just 37.8%. At the high target of $91, the potential upside is about 64%.

Analysts are expecting fourth-quarter revenue of $2.61 billion, up about 4.2% sequentially and down by about 9% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter are forecast at $0.98, up by around 9.2% sequentially and 14% higher year over year. For the full year, analysts currently estimate EPS of $3.89, up 14%, on revenue of $10.41 billion, up 11.4%.

Shares trade at 14.3 times expected 2021 EPS, 12.5 times estimated 2022 earnings of $4.46 and 11.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $4.83 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $51.51 to $81.19. eBay pays an annual dividend of $0.72 (yield of 1.30%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months is negative 7.1%.

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